The October 2023 election was highly polarised and a clear rejection of the Labour led government. Under an RS electoral system, very likely a majority gov’t would have been the outcome.
One scenario would be 84 electorates grouped into 21 regions, plus however many Maori seats there would be in 2 regions for an Assembly a little smaller than the current one.
Ranked preference voting would be best, the Regional seat being decided using the 1st choices of votes for the candidates who were unsuccessful. and the party with the most of those votes getting the Regional seat.
based on the 2020 election results
Say 76 direct seats in 19 regions, plus 6 Maori seats in 2 regions, for a total of 103 in the Assembly, 82 being single-Member seats and 21 Regionals.
Following is an example of how existing direct election seats from the 2020 elections could be grouped into regions for illustrative purposes. The bold letter would be the party winning the Regional Seat. The names of these regions are my own invention, likely a few strange, perhaps objectionable.
- L…. N N L L: _Most Southerly: ]} Invercargill; Southland; Taieri; Dunedin
- L… N L N L: _Mid South Isle: ]} Waitaki; Rangitata; Selwyn; Banks Peninsula
- N… L L L L: _Christkirk: ]} Ilam; Christchurch Central; Christchurch E; Wigram
- L… L N N N: _Marlborough ]} Nelson; W Coast-Tasman; Kakoura; Waimakariri
- N… L L L L: _Capital: ]} Wellington Central; Rongotai; Ohariu; Hutt South
- N… L L L L: _Tararua: ]} Wairarapa; Remutaka; Mana; Otaki
- N… L N L L: _South Coast: ]} Palmerston N; Rangitikei; Whanganui; New Plymouth
- N… N L L N : _Hamilton~Taranaki: ]} Taranaki~King’sCountry; Hamilton W; Hamilton E; Wakato
- N… N L L L: _East N Isle: ]} Taupo; Napier; Tukituki; East Coast
- L… N N N N: _Coromandel~Plenty: ]} Rotorua; Bay of Plenty; Tauranga; Coromandel
- L… N N L L: _Auckland One: ]} Port Wakato; Papakura; Takanini; Manurewa
- L… L L N N: _Auckland Two: ]} Mangere; Panmure-Otahuhu; Botany; Pakuranga
- L… N N ACT Gr L: _Auckland Three: ]} Tamaki; Maungakiekie; Epsom; Auckland Central; Mt Albert
- N… L L L L: _Auckland Four: ]} Te Atatu; Mt Roskill; New Lynn; Kelston
- N… L L N N: _Auckland Five: ]} Upper Harbour; Northcote; N Shore; East Coast Bays
- L… N N N N: _Most Northerly: ]} Whangaparaoa; Kaipara Ki Mahurangi; Whangarei; Northland
The Maori seats went six to Labour and one to the Maori Party. ..Perhaps they could be in one region with a Regional Member, though arguably not. ..If this voting system were implemented, then there would likely be two regions for the Maori seats.
Of the above regions, only Hamilton – Taranaki was particularly close. Labour and National took two electorate seats each, and their two losing candidates each had total votes of 25.5 thousand for Labour, 25.8 thousand for National. All other parties were far behind. Indeed, the entire election, as these things usually are, was a two-party contest overall for the electorate seats.
2017 Election
Following is an example of how existing direct election seats from the 2017 elections could be grouped into regions for illustrative purposes. The bold letter would be the party winning the Regional Seat. The names of these regions are my own invention, likely a few strange, perhaps objectionable.
- N / L L N N: _Dunedin – Fjords: _Dunedin N; Dunedin S; Clutha-Southland; Invercargill
- L / L N N N: _Middle South Island: _West Coast-Tasman; Waitaki; Rangitata; Selwyn
- N / L L L L: _Christkirk: _Christchurch East; Christchurch Central; Wigram; Port Hills
- L / N N N N: _Nelson – Ilam: _Nelson; Kaikoura; Waimakariri; Ilam
- N / L L L N: _Capital: _Rongotai; Wellington Central; Ohariu; Hutt South
- L / L L N N: _Southerly North: _Mana; Rimutaka; Otaki; Wairarapa
- L / L N N N: _Taranaki East: _Palmerston North; Rangitikei; Whanganui; New Plymouth
- L / N L N N: _Eastern North: _Tukituki; Napier; Taupo; East Coast
- L / N N N N: _Mountains – Plenty: _Rotorua; Tauranga; Bay of Plenty; Coromandel
- L / N N N N: _Western North _Taranaki-King Country; Hamilton West; Hamilton East; Waikato
- L / N N N N: _Most Northerly : _Northland; Whangarei; Rodney; Helensville
- L / N N N N: _Auckland One : _East Coast Bays; North Shore; Northcote; Upper Harbour
- N / L L L L: _Auckland Two : _Te Atatu; Kelston; New Lynn; Mount Roskill
- L / L N A N: _Auckland Three : _Mount Albert; Auckland Central; Epsom; Tamaki
- L / N N N L: _Auckland Four : _Maungakiekie; Pakuranga; Botany; Manukau East
- L / L L N N: _Auckland Five : _Mangere; Manurewa; Papakura; Hunua
The Maori seats are absent; all went to Labour. (See note above)