Results as if Regional Seats had been in place
ABOUT the DATA: _usually not official final results but unofficial complete results, though at times not quite that. However, the elections were all FPP contests with no Regional seats in play.
Had they been, voting intentions would have been somewhat different — so at best the results give an indication of what having an RS system would yield using FPP voting.. However, as actually installed, the number of direct seats (and likely also the number of regions) would be fewer.
Were ranked preference voting used for the direct seats …. who knows?
British Columbia
____ 2024 Election ___
| Region | win | _ND_ | _Con_ | _Grn_ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richmond-Delta | ND | 2 | 3 | |
| Vancouver South | Con | 3 | 2 | |
| Vancouver Centre | Con | 5 | ||
| Van – Burnaby | Con | 5 | ||
| New Westminster [4] | Con | 4 | ||
| Coquitlam | Con | 5 | ||
| Surrey – Fraser | Con | 4 | 1 | |
| Surrey – Boundary | ND | 5 | ||
| Abbotsford-Langley | ND | 5 | ||
| Chilliwack – Fraser | ND | 5 | ||
| Okanagan | ND | 5 | ||
| The Southeast | ND | 2 | 3 | |
| Kamloops | ND | 1 | 4 | |
| Pr. George – Peace | ND | 5 | ||
| The Northwest [4] | ND | 1 | 3 | |
| Burrard Inlet-Sechelt | Con | 3 | 1 | 1 |
| Vancouver Isle North | Con | 3 | 2 | |
| Vancouver Isle South | Con | 4 | 1 | |
| Victoria | Con/ Grn | 5 | ||
| ..Direct seats: | 93 | 47 | 44 | 2 |
| .. Regionals: | 19 | 9 | 9-10 | 0-1 |
| ….. Both: | 56 | 53-54 | 2-3 | |
Seats of those regions….
- Richmond – Delta:__ Delta n; Delta S; Richmond-Queens; Richmond-Steveston; Richmond- Centre
- Vancouver South:__ Van-Pt Grey; Van-Quilchena; -Little Mtn; -Langara; Richmond-Bridgeport
- Vancouver Centre:__ Van-Renfrew; -Kensington; -Fraserview; Burnaby S; Burnaby Centre
- New Westminster:__ New West-Coquitlam; Burnaby-New West; Burnaby E; Burnaby N
- Coquitlam:__ Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadow; Port Coquitlam; Coquitlam-Burke; Port Moody-Coquitlam; Coquitlam-Maillardville
- Surrey – Fraser:__ Surrey – Newton; .-Fleetwood; .-North .-City Centre; .-Guildford
- Surrey – Boundary:__ Surrey-Cloverdale; .-Serpentine River; .-Panorama; .-South; .-White Rock
- Abbotsford – Langley:__ Abbotsford S; Abbotsford West; Langley-Abbotsford; Langley-Walnut Grove; Langley-Willowbrook
- Chilliwack – Fraser:__ Fraser-Nicola; Chilliwack-Cultus Lake; Chilliwack North; Abbotsford-Mission; Maple Ridge East
- Okanagan:__ Kelowna Centre; Kelowna-Lake Country; Kelowna-Mission; West Kelowna-Peachland; Penticton
- The Southeast:__ Kootenay-Rockies; Columbia R-Revelstoke; Kootenay Central; Kootenay-Monashee; Boundary-Similkameen
- Kamloops:__ Cariboo-Chilcotin; Kamloops Cetre; Kamloops-N Thompson; Salmon Arm-Shuswap; Vernon-Lumby
- Prince George – Peace:__ Peace R-North; Peace R-South; Pr George-Cariboo’ Pr George-Mackenzie; Pr George-Valemount
- The Northwest:__ Bulkley Valley-Stikine; Skeena; Nechako Lakes; N Coast-Haida Gwaii
- Burrard Inlet – Sechelt:__ Powell R-Sunshine; West Van- Sea to Sky; West Van-Capilano; North Van-Lonsdale; North Van-Guildford
- Vancouver Isle North:__ North Island; Courtney-Comox; Mid Island-Pacific Rim; Ladysmith-Oceanside; Nanaimo-Lantzville
- Vancouver Isle South:__ Nanaimo-Gabriola Isle; Cowichan Valley; Juan de Fuca-Malahat; Langford-Highlands; Saanich N
- Victoria:__ Saanich S; Oak Bay-Gordon Head; Victoria-Swan Lake; Victoria-Beacon Hill; Esquimalt-Colwood
British Columbia: 2017 & 2020
.. It appears having Regional Seats would not have changed the outcome, as the election was practically a tie, with or without Regional MLAs.
| BC 2017 | Lib | ND | Grn | BC.2020 | Lib | ND | Grn |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kamloops | 5 | R | 5 | R | |||
| Okanagan | 5 | R | 4 | 1..R | |||
| The Southeast | 3 | 2..R | 2 | 3 | R | ||
| Pr.George -Peace | 5 | R | 5 | R | |||
| Northwest BC | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2..R | |||
| Van Isle North | 1..R | 4 | R | 5 | |||
| Cowichan -Pacific | R | 2 | 2 | R | 2 | 2 | |
| Victoria | R | 4 | 1 | 5 | R | ||
| North of Burrard | 3 | 2 | R | 2 | 3 | R | |
| Burnaby | R | 5 | R | 5 | |||
| Vancouver Centre | 1..R | 4 | R | 5 | |||
| Vancouver South | 2..R | 3 | 2..R | 3 | |||
| Richmond | 5 | R | 2..R | 3 | |||
| North Surrey | R | 5 | R | 5 | |||
| South Surrey | 3 | 2..R | 2..R | 3 | |||
| Coquitlam Area | 1..R | 4 | R | 5 | |||
| Langley -Maple Ridge | 2..R | 2 | R | 4 | |||
| Abbots -Chilliwack | 5 | R | 2..R | 3 | |||
| Regional MLAs: | 9 | 7 | 1 | 11 | 4 | 2 | |
| Direct Seats: | 43 | 41 | 3 | 28 | 57 | 3 | |
| Unclear Region | +1? | +1? | 39 | 61 | 5 |
__
_____________________________________________
Alberta: 2023 & 2019
Alberta’s 2019 election saw the two major cities supporting rival parties. Plus, the New Democrat gov’t lost all the few rural seats they had before.
The 2023 election saw the NDs get half the seats in Calgary, which while different still left them in the Opposition role. ..Truly, the Alberta NDs should adopt RS as a long~term goal.
Alberta 2023
In bold is the party who gets that Regional seat:
- Regions
- Alberta North… ND – 4 UC
- AB North West..ND – 4 UC
- St Albert Area… ND – 4UC, 1ND
- Edmonton NE… UC – 5 ND
- Edm. Centre ….. UC – 5 ND
- Edm. SW ……….. UC – 5 ND
- Edm. SE …………. UC – 5 ND
- Yellowhead E … ND – 4 UC
- Near Edm. S ….. ND – 4 UC
- Regions:
- Red Deer-Ponoka .. ND – 5 UC
- Airdrie + Area ……… ND – 4 UC, 1ND
- Alberta SE …………… ND – 4 UC
- Alberta SW ………….. ND – 5 UC, 1ND
- Calgary South ……… ND – 5 UC, 1ND
- Calgary S Centre …. ND – 3 UC, 2ND
- Calgary Centre …….. UC – 4 ND, 1UC
- Calgary NE …………… UC – 4 ND, 1UC
- Calgary NW ………….. UC – 3 ND, 2UC
- ……..
- UC – 50 seats — 7 _Regional MLAs
- ND – 37 seats — 11_Regional MLAs
- AB North…. Peace R; 2Ft McMurray; Lesser Slave Lake
- AB NW….. Central Peace-Notley; 2Grande Prairie; West Yellowhead
- St Albert Area… Spruce Grove-Stoney; Lac St Anne-Park; Morinville-St.Albert; St.Albert; Edmonton-W.Henday
- Edmonton NE: -Manning; -Beverley; -Decore; -Castle.Downs; -NW
- Edm Centre: -City.Centre; -Glenora; -Riverview; -Strathcona; -High.Norwood
- Edm SW: -Rutherford; -McClung; -Whitemud; -SW; -South
- Edm SE: -Meadows; -Mill.Woods; -Ellerslie; -Gold.Bar; -Sherwood.Park
- Yellowhead E: Vermilion-Lloyd; Ft.Sask-Vegreville; Athabasca-Barrhead; Bonny-Cold.Lake
- Near Edm S: Strathcona-Sherwood; Camrose; Wetaskiwin; Leduc; Drayton-Devon
- Red Deer-Ponoka: Rimbey-Rocky.MtnHouse; Lacombe-Ponoka; 2Red.Deers; Innisfail-Sylvan.L
- Airdrie+Area: Chester-Strath; 2Airdries; Banff..; Olds-3Hills
- AB SE: 2Medicine Hats; Drum-Stettler; Taber-Warner
- AB SW: 2Lethbridge; Cardston; Lvgstone-McLeod; Highwood
- Calgary S: -Glenmore; -Lougheed; -Fish.Creek; -Shaw; -Hays; -SE
- Cgy S Centre: -Falconridge; -Cross; -E; -Peigan; -Acadia
- Cgy Centre: -Elbow; -W; -Currie; -Buffalo; -Mtnview
- Cgy NE: -N; -NE; -Beddington; -Klein; -McCall
- Cgy NW: -Foothills; -NW; -Varsity; -Bow; -Edgemont
.
______________________
Saskatchewan
The New Democrats, once formidable, then pretty inept, rebounded in 2024 to dominate in Regina and Saskatoon. They took all 12 Regina seats, 13 of 14 in Saskatoon, plus the two Northern seats [as usual], so 27 in total. The boundaries were different as there had been a redistribution.
———% of Urban seats —- — –% of Rural seats
| Year | SP | ND | Lib | rural > | SP | ND | Lib |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 23 | 77 | 0 | all | 0 | 0 | |
| 2020 | 67 | 33 | 0 | all | 0 | 0 | |
| 2016 | 76 | 24 | 0 | all | o | 0 | |
| 2011 | 77 | 23 | 0 | all | 0 | 0 | |
| 2007 | 40 | 60 | 0 | all | 0 | 0 | |
| 2003 | 13 | 87 | 0 | 92 | 8 | 0 | |
| 1999 | 3 | 90 | 7 | 90 | 4 | 7 | |
| PC | ND | Lib | rural > | PC | ND | Lib | |
| 1995 | 0 | 97 | 3 | 19 | 48 | 33 | |
| 1991 | 0 | 97 | 3 | 29 | 71 | 0 | |
| 1986 | 22 | 78 | 0 | 91 | 6 | 3 | |
| 1982 | 89 | 11 | 0 | 89 | 11 | 0 |
Urban seats are:_ Saskatoon; ..Regina; ..Moose Jaw (2); ..Pr Albert (2); ..Battleford; ..Swift Current; and Yorkton. __Rural seats are all others, except for the two Northern seats: _Cumberland & Athabaska.
Parties are:– SP – Saskatchewan Party; _ND -New Democrats; _Lib -Liberals; _PC -Progressive Conservative
For 2020 the regions were the same as in 2016…
| Sask 2020 | SP | ND | RS | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Sask | 4 | 2 | ND | ||
| Sktn-Melfort | 6 | ND | |||
| Saskatoon E | 3 | 3 | SP | ||
| Saskatoon W | 3 | 3 | ?? | ||
| Sask NW | 5 | ND | |||
| Sask SW | 5 | ND | |||
| S Central Sask | 5 | ND | |||
| Queen City N | 4 | 2 | ND | ||
| Queen City S | 3 | 3 | ND | ||
| Sask SE | 5 | ND | |||
| East Central SK | 5 | ND | |||
| All Direct: | 48 | 13 | – | ||
| Regionals: | 1-2 | 9-10 | – |
____________________
Manitoba:
Notice the Green Party could be in the Assembly…
And earlier…..
____________________
Atlantic Provinces:
Recent elections have mostly been fairly close
Newfoundland & Labrador:
One election much closer than the other:
__________________
Prince Edward Isle ____The Greens break through. Also, due to new electoral boundaries, the pretend regions were a bit different.
________________________
New Brunswick displays a North/South split …
……………………………..
……………..SAME, SAME …Nord/Sud split in the previous election.
___________________
Nova Scotia
NS 2017
Nova Scotia __ Here again, a close election — had it been run with regional seats at stake, a minority gov’t likely would have been the outcome:
_______________________________________
Quebec:
Recent Elections
The results are as if regional seats existed, which they did not. Still, this provides some indication of their impact — once a Regional Seats system was in place. ….
The 2022 election was even stronger for the CAQ, who took 90 seats — 72% of them all. ..But all five of the main parties would get Regional MNAs.
In this table, …R is the party who got the Regional seat. Regions same as in 2018. … Bottom row is the totals of the Regional MNAs.
| Region: | CAQ | Lib | QS | PQ | C |
| Le Nord | 6 | R | |||
| Outaouais | 5 | 1 | R | ||
| Metropole Ouest | 5 | R | |||
| Laurentia | 5 | R | |||
| Lanaudiere | 5 | R | |||
| Mauricie | R | ||||
| Saguenay & Est | 6 | R | |||
| ======== | |||||
| Capitale Halo | 6 | R | |||
| Capitale | 4 | 2 | R | ||
| Bas Saint-Laurent | 4 | 2,R | |||
| Appalaches | 6 | R | |||
| Cantons de l’Est | 5 | 1,R | |||
| Bois Francs | 6 | R | |||
| Haute Richilieu | 6 | R | |||
| Voie Maritime | 5 | 1.R | |||
| ======== | |||||
| Metropole Est | 5 | 1 | R | ||
| Montreal Centre | 5 | R | |||
| Montreal Est | 2,R | 2 | 1 | ||
| Montreal Nord | R | 4 | 2 | ||
| Montreal Sud | R | 5 | 1 | ||
| Montreal Ouest | R | 5 | |||
| Laval | 4 | 2,R | |||
| ——– | |||||
| Total of Regional MNAs | 4 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 4 |
| Directly Elected | 90 | 21 | 11 | 3 | 0 |
the two previous elections …
…
Ontario: … 2018 & 2022
As if RS voting had been used — though this is merely indicative
Here are the summary results for the 2022 election using the same 23 regions as in 2018…
